Conditional Independence

Apr. 10, 2025

Let $A$, $B$, and $C$ be events. $A$ and $B$ are said to be conditionally independent given $C$ if and only if $P(C)>0$ and:

\[P(A\vert B,C) = P(A\vert C)\label{eq1}\]

Equivalently, conditional independence may be stated as:

\[P(A,B\vert C) = P(A\vert C)P(B\vert C)\label{eq2}\]

Eq. $\eqref{eq1}$ means that “the probability of $A$ given $C$ is the same as the probability of $A$ given both $B$ and $C$, this equality expresses that $B$ contributes nothing to the certainty of $A$1 and hence $A$ and $B$ are conditionally independent, given $C$. Eq. $\eqref{eq2}$ better expresses this meaning, and we can derive Eq. $\eqref{eq2}$ from Eq. $\eqref{eq1}$1:

\[\begin{split} &P(A\vert B,C) = P(A\vert C)\\ \Rightarrow&\dfrac{P(A,B,C)}{P(B,C)} = \dfrac{P(A,C)}{P(C)}\\ \Rightarrow&P(A,B,C) = \dfrac{P(A,C)P(B,C)}{P(C)}\\ \Rightarrow&\dfrac{P(A,B,C)}{P(C)} = \dfrac{P(A,C)P(B,C)}{P(C)P(C)}\\ \Rightarrow&\dfrac{P(A,B,C)}{P(C)} = \dfrac{P(A,C)}{P(C)}\dfrac{P(B,C)}{P(C)}\\ \Rightarrow&P(A,B\vert C) = P(A\vert C)P(B\vert C) \end{split}\notag\]

Besides, it should be noted that, the fact that $A$ and $B$ are independent doesn’t means that they are conditionally independent given event $C$, like an example in video2:

image-20250410123220888

From the right case we can see that $P(A,B)=P(A)P(B)$, but $P(A,B\vert C) = P(A\vert C)P(B\vert C)$, i.e. Eq. $\eqref{eq2}$, doesn’t hold.

By the way, the left Venn diagram can explain Eq. $\eqref{eq2}$ very well, but not clearly for Eq. $\eqref{eq1}$.


References